Will Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) have a happy holiday season this year? Well, maybe, but it's a long shot if it is looking for the lift from the about-to-be-released Vista operating system. First of all, the system will only become available to OEM manufacturers and computer sellers at the end of November. This is the last possible moment for PC makers to get Vista onto machines, and hopefully, the new systems featuring the Vista operating system would pump up holiday sales. If PC makers have ad plans now for holiday-season PC sales featuring Vista preloads, they better hope Microsoft doesn't slip on this one.

Microsoft will come out with the retail version of Windows Vista in January after several high-profile delays over the years, and that's when end customers will finally be able to buy the vaunted but oft-delayed operating system upgrade. The largest question on the minds of analysts, though, is if demand will materialize for Vista or if customers will opt to stick with Windows XP, which is stable enough now (without Internet Explorer's bugginess) to suffice for most PC-related tasks.

The Vista previews and release candidates I've seen sure are pretty and look fantastic -- with a very new PC, that is. In terms of utility, I'm not that convinced, but I also haven't seen Vista Premium either. That may change my mind, but I'm still not that sure. The bridge from PC task to home entertainment control (music, movies, DVR capability, etc.) has surely not been built by Microsoft very well, although there are accessories that will make this gap less painful for the technically adventurous.

But, about four months from now (perhaps a little longer), we'll all know if Vista is going to be the hit that Microsoft and MSFT investors need, helping the share price to climb out of the year-over-year funk that's lasted for years now. So, are you planning on buying a Vista system? Talk back and let me know.

[Disclosure: I own MSFT shares as of 10-13-06]