The New York Times reports that the Dow lost 360 points -- or 2.64% -- back to where it was before Ben Bernanke cut the Federal Funds Rate an unexpectedly large 50 basis points. My message to Bernanke is that cutting rates just to keep the market from falling is not a winning strategy.
The Fed is supposed to keep inflation in check, and it's failing at that job. How so? At $96.37, the price of oil is near an unprecedented $100, and gasoline prices -- which blessedly dropped during the fall -- are poised to rise about 50% to $4.50 a gallon, just as people step up their driving during the holidays. On January 19, 2001, oil was $24 a barrel -- it has since quadrupled. Meanwhile, the cost of heating a home is hitting a record -- $3.05 a gallon for home heating oil in Massachusetts. It may be higher elsewhere.
Then there's the little problem that the Fed has engendered through its rate cuts -- a dollar that's plunging like a knife. Relative to the euro, the dollar has lost 13% from $1.30 at the beginning of January 2007, to its current $1.47. And since January 19, 2001, the dollar has lost 60% of its value! Back then, one euro bought 92 cents. In addition to Brazilian supermodel Gisele Bundchen, China is now seeking to switch from the dollar to the euro. So the dollar drop is feeding on itself.
But what scares investors the most is the uncertainty about how badly the world's financial system will bleed as a result of write-downs of bad loans. With $456 billion in Level 3 assets, the country's largest nine largest banks would barely have anything left of their $584 billion in capital if they had to write all these mark-to-model assets down to zero.
I don't know if it will get that bad. But the uncertainty about how bad it is and how bad it could be is scaring investors.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.










Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-07-2007 @ 7:02PM
Andy said...
Investors are afraid, as are big corporations, there are a huge vacuums in the Republican constituent and the closer it gets to next years elections the harder it's going to hit home.
11-07-2007 @ 8:07PM
Elizabeth said...
I know money is not the answer to our problems, so I am not concern. You can be poor and rich or rich and poor. I'd rather be poor, happy and rich, because I'd rather live to see the stars instead of looking down into where Satan is living.
11-07-2007 @ 8:11PM
Daryl Montgomery said...
The dollar is dropping precipitiously because the Federal Reserve keeps pumping money into the financial system to help the banking system. The problem with this is it is causing the dollar to go into free fall and inflation to rise out of control. Wall Street has not warned the public about the consequences for investment portfolios. There have been only a few lone voices, like Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff and the New York Investing meetup telling the public the truth.
11-07-2007 @ 8:13PM
Mike said...
Banks are suffering from all the bad loans that they have, but if they foreclose on a home, they own that home and they can later sell it and recoup their losses, so how are banks "suffering"?
11-07-2007 @ 8:23PM
OINKJOHNSON2 said...
Bleed not for the financial institutions who made bad loans to people who could not document their income and/or ability to pay off the loans.
They (both the lenders and the borrowers) are now reaping the harvest of a stupid policy.
Let them bleed!
11-07-2007 @ 8:29PM
Keith said...
Private investors are afraid of everything. But the subprime mortage losses aren't the only worry in this market. The uncertainty of problems with Iran, Turkey, Iraq and oil producing nations is helping to fuel the uncertainty not to mention our low dollar. If the fed keeps lowering interest rates it will help to keep feeding this frenzy. Pretty soon the high cost of oil should put us in a recession although we've really been in one for over a year. Hang on folks you ain't seen nothing yet... Keith-
11-07-2007 @ 9:00PM
Financial Wizard said...
Ever since the Republicans took power and manipulate us into a war for profit the fall out continues. Enron was a classic example of self interests for coporate powers and the hell with the stockholders and our society. The greed of Wall Street, the Greed of executives going with short term plans to maximize profits and minimize everything else is wrong and is destroying our country. IF the Bush and Cheney attack Iran, oil will jump to $200 a barrel, the world will suffer and hate the USA to no end. We will self implode thanks to the double standards of the Republican party, their greed, their arrogance and hate for the common man. I appologize to the world for voting for Bush and Cheney in 2000. I fell for their professional marketing and image making but now see that they rival the devil in their deceit and deception. God save this country from itself.
11-07-2007 @ 9:01PM
joel said...
Hope you repuckians are happy with the recession you voted for. Wait till the Chinese dump their 1.4 trillion dollar bond holdings and most of you idiots will be soup lines.
11-07-2007 @ 9:15PM
Mark Goldes said...
Time for a "Triple Play": Reduce Oil Prices and Dependence on Fossil Fuels, while Meeting the Growing Demand for Electric Power
The Cost of Oil
Oil prices are climbing toward $100/barrel. In two years there will be one billion automotive vehicles worldwide. If current trends continue, by 2030 world oil supply, projected to be 70 Million barrels per day, will fall far short of the estimated daily demand. The projected shortfall of 40 Million barrels of oil per day will drive fuel costs far beyond tenable levels. The world will see more wars, such as the conflict in Iraq, unless a path is opened that can dramatically reduce demand for oil.
Fossil Fuels and Global Warming
James Hansen at NASA Goddard speaks for many scientists, stating that we must dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels in less than a decade to avoid life threatening catastrophes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, concluded that drastic shifts are happening much more rapidly than earlier predicted. As the average global temperature increases, each 1 degree Celsius rise deprives between 400 million and 1.7 billion people of sufficient water.
Greenland loses more ice each year than all the ice in the Alps said Konrad Steffen, a Greenland expert and advisor on abrupt climate change. "It is scary," said Steffen. Not only in Greenland, but in Antarctica and elsewhere there is massive melting of ice. In 8 years nearly all Peru's glaciers will be gone due to global warming and its 27 million people will nearly all lack fresh water, with the likely result being: 'chaos, conflict and mass migration'. A total of 46 nations and 2.7 billion people are now at high risk of being overwhelmed by armed conflict and war because of climate change. A further 56 countries face political destabilization, affecting another 1.2 billion individuals. (Observer UK 11-4-07). More than 180 nations have coastal areas in peril. Two-thirds have over 5 million people under threat of serious flooding. Included are cities such as New York, London, Miami, Shanghai and Tokyo.
The World’s Huge Appetite for Energy
Energy consumption is at the core of human existence. It virtually controls what we eat, how we live, where we go, how we are entertained, our health, knowledge, defense and exploration. The world's demand for energy is surging.
The International Energy Outlook 2006, by the U.S. Department of Energy, forecasts electricity use will grow by an average of 2 percent per year worldwide and almost twice as rapidly in the developing world. Robust economic growth in many developing nations is expected to boost demand for electricity for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Global energy consumption is projected to increase by 71% from 2003 to 2030. We need to sharply accelerate development of radically new, cost-effective, sustainable alternatives.
The Triple Play
A revolutionary new technology, GENIE™ (Generating Electricity by Nondestructive Interference of Energy) is being developed at Magnetic Power, Inc. (MPI).
MPI has dedicated more than 20 years of research and development into exploring breakthrough technologies. To reverse the trends discussed above, MPI envisions a technological revolution, developed commercially, that has limited impact on available planetary resources. GENIE is projected to be easy to manufacture and use, as well as inexpensive, thus capable of rapidly achieving global impact.
Based upon proprietary breakthrough discoveries in MPI's labs, GENIE generators are being designed to operate continuously, without fuel, extracting electricity by converting an energy source that exists everywhere in the universe. This process creates no pollution. The cost of electricity is estimated to be significantly less than any competing form of power generation, today or in the foreseeable future.
GENIE generators with no rotating parts can be made in many of the world's electronics factories. Household units will produce power 24/7. Larger units will replace automobile engines. GENIE will eliminate any need for fuel to run a vehicle. It can also allow future cars to become income producing power plants when parked.
GENIE is a magnetic device. Nobel physicist Werner Heisenberg once stated: "We could utilize magnetism as an energy source". Hans Coler demonstrated a 6 Kilowatt, solid-state, magnetic "space-energy receiver" in Germany during 1937. It was destroyed by an Allied bomb during WWII. The invention was confirmed by British Intelligence after the War. However, at the time, there was no comprehension as to the source of the energy. Coler wrote: "These fundamental researches…have made the first real and large breach in the citadel of present scientific belief."
Advanced GENIE prototypes are currently being constructed by MPI. Lee Felsenstein, EE, evaluated an early proof-of-concept prototype. He felt it to be analogous to the first examples of the transistor, which eventually led to a Nobel Prize and the creation of Silicon Valley (and similar high-tech complexes throughout the world).
A near-term MPI goal is a compact, solid-state, 1 kW self-sustaining generator. In 2008, a plug-in hybrid car, with a pair of these 1,000 watt GENIE prototypes, is expected to demonstrate that a connection to the grid is not necessary in order to recharge the battery. That will herald the beginning of an end to the need for fuel.
The urgent need is for an emergency changeover, in less than a decade, from burning fuel, to widespread use of new sources of energy that eliminate the need for fossil fuels. The Triple Play made possible by GENIE makes that a practical goal. We applaud all efforts to replace oil and reduce greenhouse gases. However, nothing short of revolutionary new technology can act fast enough to save millions of lives.
Scientists may express skepticism, since the energy source is not yet widely understood. Acceptance will come when one sits on a desk in front of them and produces electricity. MPI is developing room heaters, Demonstration Devices and toys. Young people with open minds might teach their elders how they function. This Triple Play can and will accelerate, as rapidly as the required funding will allow.
11-07-2007 @ 9:29PM
Babu said...
There is no such thing as inflation. A true inflation
is the one where there is a big scarcity for essential commodities relative to the cash in circulation . Food and agricultural products are availbale in plently these days even in
third world countries. For that matter even petrolieum reserves have been identified in most countries in the world in huge quantities. So it is all about managing the show by the government (There is no absolute capitalism, it never worked).
High gasoline prices have always hurt the "economy". It is difficult to understand Why the one cannot address the gas price issue independently. There is more than one way to address the issue. It is disgusting to see Elephant like automobiles being driven by single individuals on our freeways. We see them all day long. Is it not a good idea to impose heavy levies on heavy vehicles? Democracy represents collective responsibility afterall. Then we will be responible to mother earth as well with some ease on the gasoline prices.
11-07-2007 @ 9:30PM
aunegl said...
All the subprime problems: Those big banks and NY brokerage houses are all run by Harvard and Wharton geniuses! Shows you they aren't so smart as they'd have you believe. If I were president, I'd tell them: "Cut your mortgage interest rates to the point the home buyer you tricked can afford the payments ... if you don't I'm going to take your bank ... all your assets ... and do the same as I'm proposing ... your choice. Further, I would suspend all foreclosures now and in the future until you (the banks) solve this problem, including your making whole all the former homeowners you foreclosed on. Homeowners shouldn't suffer because of greedy banks, rather the banks should endure their own greedy decisions and NO government bailouts ... you are big boys, so act like it.
11-07-2007 @ 10:19PM
rellimlv said...
This is ridiculous. Who is pulling the strings on this market? Those that are are making huge profits on a daily basis by controlling the up and down swings of 300 + dow points.
The "controllers" continue to "control us"
11-07-2007 @ 10:32PM
Richard said...
George Bush could not run a baseball team why did people ever think he could run this country! He messed up Texas and do you REALLY believe he won without his brothers help! Give me a break! Clinton screwed one person. The next time you stop at a gas pump and bend over, think who is screwing you!
We ain't found ONE nuclear weapon of mass destruction in Iraq. But we have one in the White House, this idiot will destroy us all...
God help us!! PLEASE!!!
11-07-2007 @ 11:08PM
Pat Kenmir said...
I see DOW falling to 9,000 by June of 2008.
I see a barrel of OIL at $ 175.00 by June 2008.
I will feel real sorry for BUSH by June 2008.
I see SubPrime recession by June 2008-11.
I see a lot of bad stuff coming our way.
Hope to hell I am wrong.........., Don't think so.
11-08-2007 @ 1:33AM
sea pines said...
Too many are making a political issue of the economic crisis. The cause is debt---federal, state, county, city, and consumer debt. Altogether it runs into trillions of dollars. It is more than we can ever pay, even our childre, grandchilden, and their children can't pay it. It's too big. The end result may be another Great Depression. I hope not. But it could happen. For the sake of yourself, your loved ones, try and save as much as you can for the rainy days ahead.
11-08-2007 @ 1:36AM
gerry cull said...
Seventy percent of U.S. residents have no active interest in stocks/bonds/mutual funds, etc. Except
when their pension plans are involved.
Employment (especially for poor paying jobs and illegals) is up 4.8 % as is productivity.
Walled (from most) St.,Treasury Dept., SEC., Feds
will all cooperate because a "bottom" is here. The
hyper emotionalism will abate and financials will be
cautiously & erratically in place by 1Q, '08.
The low dollar is torturing China, India, Russia.
The Oil produciers are returning the favor - prices.
When China stops buying Treasuries, the US will
have less $$$ to buy their exports. Self-defeating.
Solution: Buy small, alternative-fuel transport. And live within your budget. US will survive nicely.
11-08-2007 @ 1:50AM
Ellen Hayes said...
It is time we start pumping oil in Alaska, the caribous will just have to make do. It is time we start telling the world we will not be controlled any longer and stop the oil company that are pumping offshore from selling it overseas. It is time we step back and look at what is the best for Americans not what is the best for your pockets.
11-08-2007 @ 2:47AM
William Levan said...
Folks, I'm an old man now, but I've seen this before. I grew up during the thirties ( the Great Depression) and it looks to me like De ja-vue all over again. This is going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better. Hang on to your friggin hat!!!
11-08-2007 @ 3:29AM
reiner said...
I don't understand the relationship between interest rates, inflation, stock prices, currency fluctuations, etc. etc. I'm not convinced there's anybody out there that really understands how all it all works. I've been reading a lot about hedge funds but still haven't grasped what they actually do and why they are necessary. Billions of dollars are disappearing into the pockets of folks who know how to milk a cow but have no clue what a makes a cow thrive.
It looks like the chickens are coming home to roost.
11-08-2007 @ 4:43AM
Ken said...
The media frenzy is frightening shareholders. As I watched the aftermath of yesterdays drop in the market, experts were saying that sharholders shouldn't panic and should go looking for bargains in the market. The media was shouting that we were in dire trouble and all the negative usuals from them. Investors need to be careful what they take away from the negative media so that they don't panic and pull out at the bottom and lose their nesteggs. Watch the big investors start buying in bulk now as they capitalize on the media's freak show, sensationalist press.