msft

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) may be defying the economic slump (err, recession) by signing up more wireless subscribers even as those same customers tighten up their wallets and purses. Analyst Will Power with Robert W. Baird & Co. indicated that the largest wireless carrier in the U.S. may snag up to 1.5 million new subscribers in the current quarter compared with the 1.2 million subscribers AT&T gained in the year-ago quarter. Impressive prediction, yes?

Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone may be the variable that makes this happen. Yes, there are now touchscreen wireless handsets from all the major wireless carriers, but the iPhone still was the first to market and set the standard in whiz-bang marketing to help AT&T nail these impressive numbers. The iPhone is not a phone, nor a hand-held computer nor a music/video/television player: it's an icon. And, that's all that counts.

Just like the iPod before it, the iPhone's biggest draw isn't the mind control it has over its fans -- it's the icon status just like the groupthink materials citizens feel they need to have. Nothing wrong with that -- it's present human nature. Apple is just exceptionally great at creating the perception that customers "need" these devices. The good news for AT&T is that it gets all the subscribers from Apple's marketing efforts.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with John Rutledge, chairman of Greenwich, Conneticuit-based Rutledge Capital, who casts a wide net, shedding light on the global recession as well as upcoming opportunities around the world.

Q. John, are we at the bottom yet (in equity markets) and what do you see for world markets in the next 12 months?

A. The US economy has substantially worsened in recent months; and the US and global economies are now in the early stages of a significant recession.

In early 2007, the problem was confined to the leveraged loan market as banks revealed their $300 billion in toxic loan commitments to US private equity deals. This was an isolated capital market problem, which had not materially impacted GDP. But in September 2008, the safety of money market funds came into question, seriously frightening individuals into taking cash from their bank accounts, putting all spending on hold and hoarding cash. Since then, GDP has been in serious decline.

Ironically, beginning in March 2008, the Federal Reserve's series of liquidity measures, designed to provide cash to troubled Wall Street institutions, made this situation worse. They sold Treasury bills simultaneously, withdrawing reserves from the banking system, resulting in less than a 1% annual rate of growth in bank reserves and the monetary base in the 12 months leading up to September 2008. Since the September crisis, both reserves and the monetary base have more than doubled, which will eventually solve the problem. But the Fed was very late to the party.

IBM (NYSE: IBM) will start offering PCs that do not run Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows operating system. According to The Wall Street Journal, "IBM says it has created a "Microsoft-free" virtual desktop -- a complete suite of applications that run on a backroom server and don't require Microsoft software or costly desktop hardware."

The new machines will use Linux and IBM software and will cost as little as $59 per machine, which could save companies several hundred dollars per desktop.

While IBM would say it is offering the new package because "server side" computing allows many workstations to run from one server, which saves money, there's no denying this is also an aggressive move against Redmond.

Windows is already under siege. The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) operating system continues to take market share as Mac sales increase. The latest version of Windows, Vista, is so unpopular that many companies have refused to upgrade to it. Open source Linux has not been very successful against Microsoft, but IBM could help change that.

For Microsoft, PC users slowly moving away from Windows to a number of other alternatives is death by a thousand cuts. There is no one thing that the software company can do to keep customers other than rush a more popular version of Windows to market. That would mean it is more likely to have annoying "bugs."

Windows is where Microsoft makes its money, for now at least.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Marvell Technology Group's (NASDAQ: MRVL) Q3 earnings report had some great numbers that made me want to consider the stock as a potential buy. However, some things about the long-term price action of the company's shares makes me want to avoid the stock altogether.

The bottom line for the storage and networking tech company increased 64% to $0.23 per diluted share; this number beat estimates by three pennies. Pretty cool, right? Here are a couple more positives: operational cash flow increased 41% on a sequential basis compared to Q2 of this year, and free cash flow increased 47% on the same basis. On a year-over-year basis, operational cash flow increased more than ten times, leading to a huge increase in free cash flow. And non-GAAP gross margin, while not seeing an increase, saw fit to at least remain flat instead of decreasing. Not bad. Marvell's shares traded 8% higher in premarket action.

Here's the deal, though. I'm not sure I'd want to buy Marvell at this point in the dreadful economic cycle. Going back to the long-term price action, there's no escaping the significant decline in the stock price as a result of potential future weakness in its business. For example, recently, Melly Alazraki wrote about Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and how sales of that device might be affected by the recession. Marvell is a supplier to the iPhone.

With the stock in single-digit territory, and with the global markets acting horribly, I just can't see buying Marvell. Indeed, I enjoyed the earnings report. But one must consider the company is unsure about demand for the stuff it sells going forward. Maybe Marvell might make a trade or something, but I'm not ready to go long-term on it just yet.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is recently down $2.32 to $35 in pre-open trading. RIMM lowered Q3 earnings guidance. Deutsche Bank has a Sell rating on RIMM. RIMM December option implied volatility of 140 is above its 26-week average of 72 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Motorola (NYSE: MOT) closed at $4.27. MOT overall option implied volatility of 95 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) closed at $13.64. NOK will host Capital Markets day in New York on December 4. Smith Barney says: "Margin targets to be lowered but how bad will 09 get?" NOK December option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) is recently up 10 cents to $7 in pre-open trading. Cowen says: "Reducing global handset industry, Sony Ericsson, on further weakness." ERIC overall option implied volatility of 78 is above is 26-week average of 62 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is recently down $2.27 to $89.70 in pre-open trading. Kaufman Bros says "Maintain Buy. We continue to believe AAPL is one of the better names to own in this tough economy given its strong fundamentals." AAPL overall option implied volatility of 74 is above its 26-week average of 56 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler appealed to Congress for a bailout Tuesday. GM said it wouldn't last till New Year's without an immediate $4 billion and is asking for as much as $18 billion to keep afloat and survive. Together they asked for $34 billion. Meanwhile, November auto sales plunged 37% with Ford's U.S. sales declining 31%, GM's falling 41% and Chrysler LLC's dropping 47%. Overseas rivals didn't do better. GM shares traded 5.2% lower and F's 1.9% higher in pre-market (7:51 and 7:55 am respectively).

Research In Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) lowered its financial earnings per share, revenue and new subscriber accounts guidance for its third-quarter, saying it has added fewer new subscribers than expected as the economy slowed. This news will likely have an effect on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) as well. RIMM shares already hit a low Tuesday following an estimate cut from JPMorgan. RIMM shares traded 5.6% lower in premarket action (7:58 am). AAPL shares were down 2% in premarket trade (8:09 am).

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) could end up cutting 30,000 jobs as it absorbs Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), three times as many as previously estimated, sources told CNBC, as BAC's CEO is trying to increase cost cuts. The majority of the layoffs are likely to come from Merrill's side of the business. BAC shares were 3% lower in premarket trade (7:59 am).

Constellation Energy Group Inc. (NYSE: CEG) finds itself in the midst of a bidding war as Electricite de France SA, the world's biggest operator of atomic reactors and which owns 9.5%, offered to pay $4.5 billion for half of CEG's nuclear business to expand in the U.S. CEG agreed earlier this year to be bought by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. for $4.7 billion. CEG shares gained over 25% in premarket trading (8:00 am).

RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) is the most recent handset company to cut sales forecasts as the recession hits demand for smartphones. It has to make investors wonder what will happen to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone sales.

RIM expects revenue for the third quarter to be in the range of $2.75-$2.78 billion. Preliminary revenue is lower than the previously forecasted revenue range of $2.95-$3.10 billion Part of the reason for the earnings cut was the value of the dollar.

But, a large part of the revision is because of a retreat in buyer appetites. According to the company, much of the weakness is "due to lower than estimated unit shipments of existing products, which RIM believes is a reflection of general economic weakness in the United States."

Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) recently said it expects its revenue to drop sharply below estimates. Nokia (NYSE: NOK) also said its business would not meet plans.

That leaves Apple and the question of whether the iPhone is simply so popular that it is "recession proof".

In an economy this bad, probably not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Jack Welch once said that a company is screwed if it is not No.1 or No. 2 in the business. Have a look at smartphone company Palm (NASDAQ: PALM), which is getting closer by the day to going out of business. It sits behind two remarkable companies: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM). Those two firms have innovative products and loads of loyal consumer and business customers.

Yesterday, Palm cut its revenue forecasts by a breathtaking sum. For its quarter ending in November, the company said revenue would be between $190 million and $195 million. Wall Street had expected $331 million.

Palm blamed the economy, but that is not really fair because its competitors, which operate in the same economy, will not miss their numbers by nearly as much, if they miss them at all. The reality is that Palm has had a series of unappealing products and its next-generation handset and OS will not be out until next year. Palm does not have the balance sheet to build and market a broad range of products so it is a "one bet" company. Its 2009 launch either works, or the company goes under.

Palm may be deviled by the recession, but years of bad management have come close to burying it by keeping the company a distant third in the high-end smartphone business.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler plan to present their plan to Congress today as they ask for $25 billion of help. They would refinance their debt, cut executive pay, seek concessions from workers and find other ways of reviving their staggering companies. Meanwhile, autmakers will also release November sales and analysts expect them to post large declines of between 20-40%. GM shares rose 10% in pre-market trade and Ford's added 5.1% (8:02 am). By around 11:42, GM shares rose 6.5% and Ford's 10.2%.

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported a much wider-than-expected third-quarter loss due to an 8% decline in sales and store closing charges. Excluding the charges, Sears reported a loss of 90 cents per share in the latest period. Analysts had expected, according to Thomson Reuters, a loss of 49 cents per share. The company did announce a $500 million stock buyback. By around 11:42 SHLD shares soared 17.9%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYTSE: GS), known so far for being able to mostly dodge most of its rivals' problems, may now, according to industry insiders The Wall Street Journal quotes, report a net loss of as much as $2 billion for its quarter ended Nov. 28 -- its first loss as a public company. Fourth-quarter loss could be as much as $5 a share, five times the current analyst consensus. GS shares trade 1% lower in premarket. By around 11:42 Goldman shares declined 2.2%.

There are few topics as popular on BloggingStocks as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), one of the original eight we focused on. In the past 52 weeks, the stock has fallen from a high of $202.96 to a recent low of $79.14 amid the greatest market turmoil in 80 years.

Everyone has finally agreed that we are in the midst of a severe recession, and Wall Street has punished Apple, the inventive high flying growth story, because of fears that a slowdown in consumer spending will stall its market expansion.

Black Fridays promise aside, the market is in a wait and see mode. In the meantime, after five consecutive trading days in the upward direction, Apples shares closed Friday in a shortened trading day at $92.67, down for the day but notably off its earlier lows.

A sixth up day was too much to hope for as the market is down, and Apple hit a Monday low of $89.00

So what now? Is the growth story over? I think that for those who have an interest in owning this stock, now is the time to buy. Given a P/E of 17 and a reported $27 in cash and no debt, could there be a better time? I think not.

Riddle me this Applenauts, Mac Geeks, and other assorted nerds: Is dealing with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) always such a royal pain in the butt?

The reason I ask is that my wife and I joined the Mac cult yesterday. We became the owners of a new, aluminum MacBook. My dad -- an Apple fan since the 1970s -- could not be prouder. I, too, was ecstatic. Finally, I am going to be one of the cool kids. I would be part of the revenge of the nerds. My technological joy, however, may be short-lived.

Our problem was with Apple's customer service or lack thereof. For one thing, we weren't able to complete our order on Black Friday because of a technical snafu on the Apple Web site that made it impossible for us to use the company's zero-percent interest financing offer. The rare sale discount we were able to get for the machine evaporated. My wife tried to get a hold of customer service on Saturday, but got disgusted after being disconnected. We drove to Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to look at laptops but nothing grabbed our fancy even though many of the machines offered comparable performance to the MacBook for much lower prices.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says seasonality is finally working in our favor.

Here's a new one: I don't trust the futures, but this time on the downside. We could get giant cuts from Europe and the Brits this week and given that it is international trade that is weighing us down, I would think that the declines we all expect after that record-breaking advance last week will not be vicious and will be muted.

I think that we have to watch the Nasdaq again for tells. I'm sure that this time some people will say that gadgets didn't sink as low as we thought on Black Friday, which means a return to big glass screens -- Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer's Take) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) -- and perhaps once again hopes for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) and for Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take).

There is also a newfound expectation that with all the money the Fed is printing, if you get any sign that Europe is willing to play ball, you are going to see the world trade stocks moving back up.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) plans to sell its Japanese trust banking unit NikkoCiti Trust and Banking for about 40 billion yen ($416.7 million) as it struggles to survive the global financial crisis, according to the Nikkei. Also, a Citigroup fund, Citi Infrastructure Partners, is bidding 7.9 billion euros ($10.2 billion) to buy a Spanish highway operating firm, Sacyr Vallehermoso, the firms said on Monday. Citi shares were down over 12% by 11:30 am.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) -- over the weekend there have been conflicting reports regarding the two. There were reports that Microsoft is going to offer $20 billion for Yahoo's search business, but then other sources said these are completely unfounded. Meanwhile, SAI posted that Sue Decker is the front runner for the CEO job at the portal company. YHOO and MSFT shares were down about 3.5% by 11:30 am.

General Motors Corp's (NYSE: GM) board met Sunday to review a restructuring plan intended to win support for up to $12 billion in emergency funding from the U.S. government, according to different reports. GM's plan includes cuts to executive pay andcould indicate that the company will ask some bond holders to accept equity and a limited cash payout to redeem the debt they hold and focus on fuel-saving technology. GM shares were down about 9% at 9 am.

[Update 8:50 am: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has agreed to buy breast-implant maker Mentor Corp. (NYSE: MNT) for $1.07 billion, or $31 per Mentor share, a 92% premium to Friday's closing price. The deal, expected to close in the first quarter of 2009, is expected to have a dilutive impact to Johnson & Johnson's 2009 earnings per share of approximately $0.03 - $0.05. Of course, MNT shares are up over 88% in premarket trading. JNJ shares were down about 2.7%, but MNT's up about 90% by 11:30 am.]

Seems that even this shortened week was full of news and happenings, in the U.S. and around the world. With Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) being bailed out by the U.S. government at the beginning of the week and China announcing fiscal and monetary stimulus plans, the Dow industrials finished in positive territory four days in a row.

But as analysts and pundits, as well as each and every economic release -- in the U.S. and around the world -- remind us, we are not out of the woods yet and the rally has really been a bear-market rally.

Investors looking to take advantage of such rallies, or at least feel they hold stable long-term holdings, can search this week's BloggingStocks' contributors' picks:

Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) and Devry Inc. (NYSE: DV) -- It's often been suggested that educators do well in times of recession and high unemployment as workers look to improve or change their education to get a better job. Leo Fasciocco thinks these two are poised for a breakout.

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) reported stronger-than-expected earnings this week and also hiked its forecast. Not surprisingly, cash-strapped consumers turn more and more to discounters. Dollar Tree may continue to benefit from the economic downturn and the stock could also experience a short-squeeze rally.

Computer-networking icon Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trying to cut costs wherever it can. In a sign of the times, Cisco will shut offices for four days during the Christmas/New-Year period in an effort to defend its profit margins (critical operations will remain open). Other tech companies that are trying to utilize time off for employees as a way of saving money include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE).

When I read headlines like this, it makes me doubt the current rally we've seen in the markets. Indeed, bear-market rallies are common when things get way oversold. Then the euphoria gets put in perspective when we realize that it's going to be a long time until the economy truly finds its way back into a cycle of growth.

Businesses like Cisco will suffer from declining top-line sales as its customers become increasingly conservative with their investment capital. At that point, the only defensive move is to cut costs. And that's not a great position to be in. It limits management's ability to run operations, and it sends a bad message to Wall Street. Like some people have been saying, tools such as cost-cutting and layoffs aren't necessarily being perceived as positive elements in this cycle; they only serve to accentuate the dread of the slowing global economy.