msft

This post was writtenby Minyanville contributor Ryan Krueger.

Looks like Verasun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), a formerly popular ethanol stock and second largest producer, has won court permission to cancel contracts signed to purchase corn. It is now in bankruptcy. I'm also hearing about a lot of excess ethanol funded by your tax dollars being sold to other countries. That worked out well.

The mistaken policy and debates are endless, the trades are what I am chewing on instead. I think consumers of corn at lower prices are set up for some awfully tasty '09 comparisons for their bottom lines. Corn Products International, Inc. (NYSE: CPO), after Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) backed away from its take-over, is a name I have re-entered from the long side after closing out my position just after the non-merger was announced and shares traded twice what they are now. They sweeten something you'll eat or drink in the next hour.

Longer term, however, I am even more interested in the ingredients, not the end products. But it's still early. I have been long gone from 2008 corn contracts for quite some time, but am starting to poke around out on the futures curve. On the same day this court ruling was announced abolishing artificial demand, quiet real demand emerged as Mexico was a big buyer of corn.

I'll take a few billion eaters over several million drivers any day.

Marvell Technology Group's (NASDAQ: MRVL) Q3 earnings report had some great numbers that made me want to consider the stock as a potential buy. However, some things about the long-term price action of the company's shares makes me want to avoid the stock altogether.

The bottom line for the storage and networking tech company increased 64% to $0.23 per diluted share; this number beat estimates by three pennies. Pretty cool, right? Here are a couple more positives: operational cash flow increased 41% on a sequential basis compared to Q2 of this year, and free cash flow increased 47% on the same basis. On a year-over-year basis, operational cash flow increased more than ten times, leading to a huge increase in free cash flow. And non-GAAP gross margin, while not seeing an increase, saw fit to at least remain flat instead of decreasing. Not bad. Marvell's shares traded 8% higher in premarket action.

Here's the deal, though. I'm not sure I'd want to buy Marvell at this point in the dreadful economic cycle. Going back to the long-term price action, there's no escaping the significant decline in the stock price as a result of potential future weakness in its business. For example, recently, Melly Alazraki wrote about Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and how sales of that device might be affected by the recession. Marvell is a supplier to the iPhone.

With the stock in single-digit territory, and with the global markets acting horribly, I just can't see buying Marvell. Indeed, I enjoyed the earnings report. But one must consider the company is unsure about demand for the stuff it sells going forward. Maybe Marvell might make a trade or something, but I'm not ready to go long-term on it just yet.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

I happened to be reading two articles on CIO.com yesterday concerning Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) and its Wii distribution strategy. There was an older one from August discussing the reasons why the Wii has been in short supply. Was Nintendo purposely making the Wii a rare commodity? Were there indeed production problems? The second mentioned Nintendo's decision to increase the availability of the Wii so that as many consumers as possible will become part of that system's user base. The headline said that Wii shipments will be doubled.

Let me give you my unscientific perspective on this topic. On an anecdotal basis, over the weekend, I noticed that, in my area at least, if you wanted a Wii you got a Wii. Also, if you wanted a Wii Fit, you got a Wii Fit. You didn't have to wait in line at three in the morning, you didn't have to go online, punch up eBay and get into some obnoxious bidding war to score a console so that your kid would be content on Christmas morning. The availability of the Wii hasn't been better.

And I tell you, this could be, from one point of view, bad for Nintendo. It might even be good for Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). After all, if the Wii demand is possibly now satiated (according to my anecdotal observations), then interest may jump in the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.

There are few topics as popular on BloggingStocks as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), one of the original eight we focused on. In the past 52 weeks, the stock has fallen from a high of $202.96 to a recent low of $79.14 amid the greatest market turmoil in 80 years.

Everyone has finally agreed that we are in the midst of a severe recession, and Wall Street has punished Apple, the inventive high flying growth story, because of fears that a slowdown in consumer spending will stall its market expansion.

Black Fridays promise aside, the market is in a wait and see mode. In the meantime, after five consecutive trading days in the upward direction, Apples shares closed Friday in a shortened trading day at $92.67, down for the day but notably off its earlier lows.

A sixth up day was too much to hope for as the market is down, and Apple hit a Monday low of $89.00

So what now? Is the growth story over? I think that for those who have an interest in owning this stock, now is the time to buy. Given a P/E of 17 and a reported $27 in cash and no debt, could there be a better time? I think not.

Computer-networking icon Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trying to cut costs wherever it can. In a sign of the times, Cisco will shut offices for four days during the Christmas/New-Year period in an effort to defend its profit margins (critical operations will remain open). Other tech companies that are trying to utilize time off for employees as a way of saving money include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE).

When I read headlines like this, it makes me doubt the current rally we've seen in the markets. Indeed, bear-market rallies are common when things get way oversold. Then the euphoria gets put in perspective when we realize that it's going to be a long time until the economy truly finds its way back into a cycle of growth.

Businesses like Cisco will suffer from declining top-line sales as its customers become increasingly conservative with their investment capital. At that point, the only defensive move is to cut costs. And that's not a great position to be in. It limits management's ability to run operations, and it sends a bad message to Wall Street. Like some people have been saying, tools such as cost-cutting and layoffs aren't necessarily being perceived as positive elements in this cycle; they only serve to accentuate the dread of the slowing global economy.

There was a short blurb about Xerox (NYSE: XRX) in the news on Monday. Management at the company wanted investors to know that it won't be needing to beg for the green stuff. Cash flow from operating activities, existing credit facilities, and a leaner business will carry the technology company through the current difficult period. Xerox gave a wide earnings range for 2009, saying it should book between $1 and $1.25 per share. Analysts are counting on $1.15 per share.

Well, that range makes it kind of difficult to predict how things will turn out in terms of whether the company will beat Wall Street or not; might as well flip a quarter. The more important thing to focus on is that Xerox will be profitable and that it is confident in its liquidity. The stock was up almost 18% at the close yesterday on nice volume. With the recent rally, should you look at Xerox as an investment, or a trade?

Xerox isn't one of my favorite stocks. I have no interest in it on a long-term basis. It just isn't a leading innovator these days, and there are way better alternatives out there if you want a core, long-term holding in the tech sector. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) are three names off the top of my head I'd look at first.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), whose tech colleagues include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), had a pretty decent third quarter. The bottom line came in at $0.37 per diluted share. That represented a growth rate of 9%, and it handily beat analyst expectations of $0.31 per share according to Thomson Reuters. I give Dell credit for the significant beat.

However, it should be noted that the bottom line was driven in part by share repurchases. There's nothing necessarily wrong with that, but it does put the big earnings beat in perspective. Indeed, on a dollar basis, profits decreased about 6%. Still, operating income rose 22% on a year-over-year basis.

But then there's the statement of cash flows. Cash was used for operations in the third quarter, a reported $86 million. Last year at this time, Dell generated $998 million from operating activities. That's something to at least think about. In fact, the press release said that slowing demand helped to worsen the cash conversion cycle. Now, I won't crucify Dell on this one cash-flow statement, because the company should still deliver a lot of the green stuff on an annual basis. But even the nine-month statement shows a decline in cash from operations. Again, it's something an investor must consider, and it puts that earnings beat in perspective.

Years ago, I was a subscriber to PC Magazine. For those in the tech business, it was a must-have publication.

But of course, with the emergence of the Internet – and the explosion of free resources – I eventually cancelled my subscription. And so did many others.

So, finally PC Magazine is going completely digital (this is according to a decision from the parent corporation, Ziff Davis Media). The last edition will be January 2009.

In a way, PC Magazine is a part of tech history. After all, the magazine got its start back in 1982, when IBM launched its PCs and Bill Gates was in the early stages of building the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) empire. All in all, the magazine had a great ride.

The good news is that PC Magazine has also done a fine job of transitioning to the Web. For example, the online network includes other valuable properties like Gearlog. In fact, about 80% of the profits come from the websites.

The market continues to jump around wildly. Investors are sitting on the sideline waiting for the volatility to end. And they will have a long wait.

For those looking to make money in the craziness, trading is the way to go. Daily fluctuations in the market provide fertile ground for profits. In fact, success in this environment can result in a year or more of gains made in one or two days.

That may make little sense, but there is no sense in debating the reality that we now face. At the moment that reality is based on an economy that is sinking and sinking fast. Despite the best efforts of the central bank and the federal government, a long recession is now baked into the cake.

What does that mean for stocks?

It means volatility and uncertainty will rule the day. There is very little clarity in the market, and even the best at forecasting are having difficult viewing the crystal ball.

Hewlett-Packard's (NYSE: HPQ) news yesterday was a fresh reminder of that uncertainty. The company offered a preview to fourth-quarter results, ended Oct. 31, that defies gravity. At a time when every other company seems to be offering lower and lower guidance, HPQ came in and boldly stated that revenue and earnings will be greater than expected.

Yesterday, in response to Chasing Value: ISRG is falling and I'm buying I received the following comment from Beltway Greg, "You're a brave dude. Why? I've watched this stock for awhile and I worry about possible entry by other folks into the market."

Brave perhaps, even foolish on occasion, but I still think this is the time to be selectively buying equities.

To those that might be concerned about competition for Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) you will be interested in the following:

• NOTICE TEXT: Department of the Army U.S. Army Medical Command MEDCOM, North Atlantic Regional Contracting Office Subject: Contract prosthetic feet and leg coverings This is a notice of the Governments intent to solicit, negotiate and award a sole source contract (Note 22) contract to Intuitive surgical for Implants based on urgency. This is not a set-aside for small business. This notice is an urgent requirement for Walter Reed Army Medical Center, 6900 Georgia Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20307, contract number W91YTZ-09-P-0147. Parties interested in future announcements shall provide detailed information of their capabilities and certifications to clearly meet the requirements stated above.

It is possible that someday ISRG will have some competition, but there does not seem to be anything on the horizon for now. Furthermore, as the user base expands the barrier to entry increases and the cost of changing systems becomes more challenging.

The most likely scenario for competition would be if another manufacturer were to create a similar system for procedures not yet addressed by ISRG's Di Vinci robotic surgical units. Some of the potential competitors, like Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) or Medronic (NYSE: MDT), are actually corporate partners helping to distribute the units world wide. What is most likely from my point of view is that other manufacturers will find a way to partner with ISRG to develop complimentary hardware to expand the capability of the system for more procedures to get to market faster.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

This is the fourth in a four part series which I hope gives buyers, sellers, shareholders and dare I say management a platform for discussion.

This week I envisioned an eBay (NASADQ: EBAY) without Skype, eBay Motors and Paypal. Everything goes to the highest bidder, excluding handling and delivery of course.

While EBay might benefit from selling Skype and Motors, considering they might be worth more to others like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and AutoNation Inc. (NYSE:AN), it should not sell PayPal unless it is contemplating a merger, since the acquiring company most likely would want PayPal to be an integral part of any deal.

Ebay is going through some growing pains right now but it is still a primary center of activity on the web. Although there are many disgruntled sellers that have left the site or been forced off because of the constant changes in the rules, it really has only one main rival and that is Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).