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Capital One (NYSE: COF) and Chevy Chase Bank join the long list of bank mergers that we have seen this year, as Capital One announced today that it would be acquiring Chevy Chase Bank for $520 million in cash and stock.

Over the past couple of years, Capital One has acquired several regional banks as it moves to become a major player in the full banking services industry, after getting its start as primarily a credit card company. The move to acquire Chevy Chase Bank, which is headquartered in Bethesda, MD, involves a cash payment of $445 million in and 2.56 million shares of stock.

McLean, Va.-based Capital One is one of the banks that received part of the recent government bailout, reportedly getting $3.56 billion in exchange for preferred stock and warrants to purchase common stock.

I still remember when I realized that a real estate crisis was on its way. My wife and I were contemplating buying a home in Roanoke, Virginia, and began talking to a mortgage broker. When we saw the final offer, we realized that, if the real estate market continued on a stable path, and if the (then marginal) neighborhood continued to have a declining crime rate, and if the price of gas didn't go up, and if neither my wife nor I became seriously ill, then we would be great. In five years, when the rate went variable, we would refinance and everything would work out beautifully.

That was in 2004.

Thinking about it, my wife and I soon realized that those were a lot of ifs; while we wanted the house, we knew that we couldn't base our financial future on a deck of cards. After turning down the offer, I thought more and more about it and began to get worried. If a lot of people were buying into the kind of mortgage that my wife and I had declined, and if they had similar expectations about refinancing when their rates went variable, then it seemed likely that the mortgage industry was sitting on a major time bomb.

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney is credited with questioning assets on bank balance sheets given the collapse in the real estate market.

Taking advantage of a complete lack of information, Ms. Whitney triggered a massive collapse of trust in an industry by claiming that mortgage-backed securities were worth far less than what the market had perceived.

While she may have had a basis for her claims, her assessment was more sensational than factual. Mortgage-backed securities are quite complex instruments whereby loans are sliced, diced and packaged for sale to a global market.

With maturities extending 30 years into the future, it is unreasonable and unfair to assume that paybacks, even with high default rates will amount to what is currently priced into the market.

The lack of understanding of the underlying security or loans at the individual level has created uncertainty that has yet to be resolved.

For fans of the original "Star Wars" movie, think of the weakness in terms of attacking the Death Star. That one hole was exploited (we can debate the merits of doing so later) by Ms. Whitney and those like her.

With banks hiking interest rates and fees and getting stingy with credit, BusinessWeek reports that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has "held talks with Herbert and Marion Sandler, founders of Golden West Financial Group, about a new credit card that would offer lower interest rates and few of the onerous fees associated with traditional credit cards."

Wal-Mart currently has a credit card offered in partnership with General Electric, but the interest rate can run quite high. A card financed by Wal-Mart itself would likely offer consumers a better deal.

The time would seem to be right for Wal-Mart to dive into this business and capitalize on the weak positions of the big banks that have been damaged by the credit crunch. But here's an idea for Wal-Mart: Call it something other than the Wal-Mart card, and keep your logo off it. Credit cards are something of a status symbol and a way that consumer pledge allegiance to brands and causes that are important to them: Nothing could be less cool than a Wal-Mart card. Call it something different, and lure people in with a great deal. That will reach a much broader market.

Visa (NYSE: V), the famous credit and debit card business, which competes with MasterCard (NYSE: MA) and American Express (NYSE: AXP), reported results for the fourth quarter on Thursday. I came away from them feeling pretty bullish.

No, it wasn't so much the numbers as it was the fact that the credit-card concern constructed a litigation settlement with Discover (NYSE: DFS). The latter had antitrust issues with Visa, and it was a part of the company's story that bothered me. Visa will pony up almost $1.9 billion to Discover to make everything hopefully okay between the two (for more about the settlement, check out Elizabeth Harrow's post). Most of the money was already set aside in a fund in anticipation of the settlement. That's awesome.

And as for earnings, well, Visa lost money on a GAAP basis during Q4 driven by the litigation provision. But on an adjusted basis, excluding that provision and other charges, Visa earned $0.58 per diluted share. That was a penny better than Wall Street expectations.

This makes the Visa story even more attractive than it already was. Honestly, as a long-term investment, Visa should be a winner. I know the economy doesn't rule right now, but I don't think there's anyone out there who believes that credit cards are going away.

Investors may have hoped that falling home prices and the mortgage-backed paper that goes with them would be the only big shoe to drop at US financial firms. They should only be so lucky.

Credit cards are likely to be the next Waterloo for the banking system. According to The Wall Street Journal, "A broader range of consumers now carry cards and many run consistent credit balances to fund their lifestyles. This has led to successively higher peaks over the years in credit-card charge-off rates."

It is worth pausing for a moment to think about that. Banks are being recapitalized by the Treasury. There is some hope that earnings at big financial firms will begin to recover by the middle of next year as the housing market becomes more stable. How could future losses at banks rival those seen in the last three quarters?

The fact is that many consumers are having trouble paying for their homes and relatively expensive gas at the same time. The average citizen has gone wild buying plasma TVs and video game consoles for the kids. Most of that is on the plastic sitting in the pockets of those who are already stretched too thin.

Until recently, a home equity line was the easy way to get some cash to pay down those card balances. Housing prices have cut that off.

How much is a stake.? No one knows? But, what if 100 million working Americans have $2,000 each on their plastic? That number is too big to calculate because most calculators do not have than many zeros. Some of it is not going to be paid back.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Oil prices are significantly down from the summer high of $147 per barrel. Wednesday October 1, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for November delivery, lost $2.11 to close at 98.53 dollars a barrel.

Now Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) is slashing its outlook for oil prices. Not only do their analysts believe that oil will drop below $90 a barrel next year, but they add that there is a possibility it may drop below $50. Demand is shrinking and it's hard to call a bottom.

Given all the turmoil in the financial markets this year and with a looming "consumer credit bubble" being discussed in most business publications, it would be very advisable to use any savings from lower oil prices to pay down credit card debt.

In the last few years it's become pretty clear that there are many mortgages which people can't repay. But that's not the only place where people are having problems making ends meet. Borrowers holding loans for commercial real estate, leveraged buyouts, and automobiles are also having their problems with repayment.

So it should not be a huge surprise to learn that people who hold credit cards are not repaying the money they borrowed in a timely fashion. Innovest StrategicValue Advisors, a consulting firm, forecasts that banks will charge off $18.6 billion worth of credit card receivables in the first quarter of 2009 and $96 billion in 2009 -- that would be 261% more than in 2007 and 131% higher than the level it expects by the end of 2008.

But will a rise in defaults be devastating to credit card companies? A typical installment loan is a relatively low $2,200, so if a borrower pays late, the credit card companies can charge very high fees and raise the interest rates so high that they can offset some of the losses they'll incur when they ultimately end up charging off the receivable. But this credit crunch has proven that historical patterns don't always apply.

It would not surprise me if a rapid rise in credit card defaults had a negative impact that most experts had not anticipated.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Now that analysts have figured out that the credit crisis is moving from subprime to prime borrowers, the economic detective squad has begun to look for what's next. Turns out they don't have to look much further than the same consumer who cannot afford his mortgage.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Rising defaults on credit-card payments, coupled with a bleaker economic outlook, are spooking investors in the market where this debt is packaged and sold." The result is a double-edged blade. Banks that hold these packaged securities will have to begin to write them down just as they did mortgage-backed paper. And consumers will find credit harder to come by because banks do not want more write-offs.

The consumer will have lost one of his last places to find cash, and banks will face more losses and the risk of having to raise additional capital. Since credit has driven consumer spending, the retail industry may be in for another shock.

Hank Paulson led the charge this morning talking about the need and credibility of the GSE's. Oil was up for a while but after Tropical Storm Dolly headed further south than the oil and gas infrastructure that locked in heavy oil selling. The major focus continues to be earnings and financial stocks in particular. Below are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11601.60 (+134.26)
S&P500 1276.80 (+16.80)
NASDAQ 2303.96 (+24.43)
10YR T-Note 4.097 (+0.03%)
52-Week Lows
Top Analyst Calls

American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was one of the more poor financial stocks today after the company choked on earnings last night. It is also facing deteriorating business despite it being thought of as the highest quality credit card around. Shares were down 9.2% at $37.13 in today's final minutes.

American Express (NYSE: AXP) saw a big sell-off in its shares during the after-hours session on Monday following the release of its second-quarter earnings numbers. The shares already closed down over 11%.

It isn't difficult to comprehend this one. According to Earnings.com, Wall Street was hoping for the credit company to make 83 cents per share. American Express only delivered 57 cents per share from continuing operations. Not only did the company disappoint the Street by a very wide margin, but it disappointed itself, since that 57 cents per share represents a 35% drop compared to the bottom-line results achieved a year ago.

Yep, the financial crisis is still with us. American Express needed to significantly add to its credit reserves. Management stated that the economy is having a negative effect on its cardmembers, and that previous guidance can no longer be relied on. Translation: don't buy this stock! At least, that's my opinion.

I simply can't see allocating investment funds to American Express at this point. If investors wanted to get some exposure to plastic, all they would need to do is consider Visa (NYSE: V) or MasterCard (NYSE: MA). Both of these businesses are based primarily on transactions, not on credit risk. Whenever a card is used, these businesses get a little cut. And that adds up, my friends. Granted, both of these companies sold off on Monday and have been weak lately, and they have litigation risk, but I'd at least look at them for the long-term. Over time they should do well.

American Express, however, is way off my list of potential investment ideas. Not even going near this one. Name a timeframe (e.g. year-to-date, one-year, five-year, etc.), and you'll find that the stock is down. The economy is going to have to turn sharply before I even remotely consider it.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

I love the long-term prospects of Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA), but I do have to concede that a pesky lawsuit by Discover (NYSE: DFS) is the one big fly in this story's soup. According to the following article, Discover wants both credit-card companies to pay $6 billion for perceived violations of antitrust regulations. Unfortunately, these damages could be tripled if Visa and MasterCard lose. One of the big problems here is that American Express (NYSE: AXP) already won a settlement of $2.1 billion from Visa late last year and the company established an escrow fund worth $3 billion for litigation payments.

I'll admit, this lawsuit does give me and my credit-card investment thesis a little case of the shivers. After all, tripling $6 billion to $18 billion means that a huge amount of money is in play here, and a successful outcome for Discover would hamper the stocks of the two big card entities. When you read through the litigation risks in Visa's SEC filings (out of MasterCard and Visa, the latter is my favorite since it is still relatively fresh off its IPO and MasterCard has already had a big run), they are pretty scary. And the fact that the $6 billion figure just came to light this week has probably soured the perception of some investors and analysts. Nevertheless, all the previous litigation talk didn't stop Visa's stock from taking off after its IPO earlier this year.

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There is a great article on Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA) over at TheStreet.com. It talks about the incredible growth in prepaid cards. A prepaid card is one which has a certain quantity of stored value on it. Think of it as being similar to a gift card, except that a prepaid card can be used most anywhere. Both Visa and MasterCard want to capture as much market share for prepaid cards as possible because they offer the same revenue model as existing credit cards in terms of processing fees.

The wonderful thing about stored-value cards is that they represent the ultimate desire of the business economy: conversion into a cashless society. Not only does business want this, but so does the government, which will probably increase its use over time in terms of distributing monies such as unemployment benefits and social-security funds to individuals lacking bank accounts.

An important point made in the piece is the fact that prepaid cards will take a long time to reach critical mass and to become economically significant for Visa and MasterCard's bottom lines. This must be kept in mind, yet I have to say that I personally think prepaid cards could become more significant sooner than people think, assuming that the two big guns in this area buckle down and make some smart moves. Let me describe what I mean.

You know, I can't take much more of the financial crisis. That's because I own Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) and CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE). I'm kind of hoping we get out of the mess brought on by the housing-bubble pop and the mark-to-market devaluation so that these stocks will rise again. As we continue through this recession, another problem may soon assert itself.

According to this article, consumers are starting to rely on their credit cards a little too much. This could lead to a larger quantity of delinquencies. In fact, the piece states that card delinquencies were at 4.86% in Q1, a multi-year high. Further, revolving debt increased 7.9% in March, coming in at $957 billion. Not too far away from a trillion, my friends. Let me tell you, this is the last thing we need right now. Delinquencies will become a major problem for the banks, leading to further erosion of confidence on financials by investors.

As can be expected, two ideas immediately came up during the course of the article: Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA). How could they not? If people are taking credit debt, then they must be using those two brand names. Since Visa and MasterCard don't really have exposure to the debt side of things, they are relatively safe from that aspect.

Credit cards ... the little plastic cards in your wallet that are so convenient to rely on when you are strapped for cash. While the convenience of having cards definitely makes it easier to buy items when you are running low on cash, the flip side is that credit card debt can drown the typical household, and statistics are showing that Americans are pulling out their cards more than before.

One of the reasons why credit card usage has been on the rise is the fact that homeowners are having a harder time using home equity to get a cash infusion into their accounts. As a result, they are looking to borrow money from somewhere, and more times than not, they are turning to credit cards.

The evil with credit cards is that once you start to use them to pay for your basic necessities like food and gas, you find that in the months to come you still can't afford your basic needs but in addition, your monthly bills are racking up like crazy due to your credit card expenses. It's a scary cycle that many families find themselves trapped in.