With its results benefiting from high gas prices and a renewed consumer focus on bargains, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is looking more relevant than it has in years. The company is also redoubling its efforts to make inroads overseas.
Craig Herkert, president and CEO of Wal-Mart's America's division, met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the company released a statement saying that it would seek to open 80 to 90 new stores and that "The retailer will make its largest investment yet in the country since it started operating in Brazil fourteen years ago."
This seems like a prudent investment in a region where Wal-Mart has enjoyed considerable success. Eight of the 12 foreign countries Wal-Mart has operations in are in Latin America, and the company's concept appears to work there. In other foreign markets, most notably Germany, Wal-Mart's fixation on low prices has met with failure. The developing world likely represents Wal-Mart's best opportunity for long-term growth.
Just call it 'two steps forward, one step back' for the global trade talks.
The collapse of the World Trade Organization's trade talks this week without an agreement is a setback, economists contacted by BloggingStocks agreed, but it is not likely likely to prevent international trade from growing in 2009.
The nine-day talks in Geneva -- aimed at completing the Doha Round -- collapsed Tuesday after the United States and the European Union could not reach an agreement with China and India on what constituted acceptable tariffs for food imports, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The U.S. and E.U. say China and India wanted to impose prohibitively high tariffs. China and India counter that they were insisting on safeguard rules to protect their food supplies.
Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks the elimination of food import tariffs would have resulted in more-efficient deployment of resources, and, ultimately, lower food prices for consumer around the world, along with increased the increased commerce that trade brings. "The failure of the talks is a real loss for consumers in China, India and in the U.S. and Europe," Langan said. "It will also really hurt low cost food producers in Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Ultimately, China and India will have to relent, or the west may begin to complain about free trade conditions for manufacturing and services. That manufacturing free trade policy has been the source of a considerable amount of China's and India's economic growth."
"The acronym 'BRIC-standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China-is in vogue as shorthand for the emergence of the developing world.
"But we're herewith proposing an emended version: 'BRAC'-standing for Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada.
"That's because these four countries are the ones most brimming over with essential natural resource, with each one a net exporter of fuels and other natural products. In a world where resource shortages will only get worse, these countries will stand out from the pack.
"Don't get us wrong. China and India remain the largest and fastest growing emerging economies and still face exceptional futures.
"But their major resources are cheap labor, which will become less cheap as their economies keep growing. Indeed, labor costs in these countries already have begun to rise relative to the rest of the world.
"Meanwhile, continued gains in commodities mean that Australia and Canada are gaining relative to the rest of the world. It's hard to overstate just how important relative resource independence is in a world where resources are becoming ever more scarce and expensive.
Oil rose more than $4 a barrel early Friday morning to a record $145.98 on concerns that Israel may be preparing to attack Iran and on supply concerns in Nigeria and Brazil. [Update: Oil prices continued to climb, reaching a record of $147.03 a barrel, and this may not be the last update.]
Oil came within a whisker of $146 per barrel after Israeli fighter jets reportedly practiced over Iraq according to Iraqi and Iranian sources. This, however, was enough to increase speculation among traders that Israel is preparing to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
The United States and the European Union want Iran to end uranium enrichment, a technology that would give Iran the materials needed to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran says it wants the nuclear technology solely to produce electricity for civilian use. If one discounts oil sands, Iran has the world's second largest proved oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia.
Oil was also fanned higher by threats of additional Nigerian civil unrest and Brazilian oil union's plan to start a 5-day strike, Bloomberg News reported Friday.
The other major energy commodities, likewise, also jumped in early Friday morning trading. Heating oil surged 8 cents to $4.12 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 6 cents to $357 per gallon, and natural gas jumped 16 cents to $12.53 per million BTUs.
Perhaps no other economic phenomenon better characterizes this initial decade of the twenty-first century than the development of -- and GDP growth in -- the developing world.
The economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- often referred to as the BRIC economies -- are major reasons why the developing world will grow 6.7% in 2008, far outpacing growth rates in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
New York Times columnist Roger Cohen argues that what we're seeing is not just the development of markets, not just 'the world is flat,' to use the term popularized by his Times colleague Thomas Friedman, but a reversal: the world is upside down. In Cohen's interpretation, the new economic tigers' accomplishments are large, ongoing, and system changing. Moreover, a power shift is occurring from the U.S and Europe to the new engines of growth.
For Cohen, Brazil is the economic model of the age: abundant minerals and crops, investment capital pouring in, a sugarcane-based energy policy, rising personal incomes, and an increasingly prosperous middle class, with plenty of land to mine, to plant, to expand. It is, in many ways, much of what the United States is not in 2008.
In light of oil's rise to triple-digit prices, the United States' inability to pass an energy policy aimed at increased efficiency, renewable energy, and energy independence, represents an opportunity squandered -- on two fronts: transportation and power generation.
True, oil has retreated from the $135 range to the $125-128 range, but the nation now faces record-high gasoline/diesel prices, along with high prices for heating oil, natural gas, and coal. As a result, the broad-based disposable income -- so essential for U.S. economic growth -- has been squeezed, with many economists now arguing adequate GDP growth is not possible, if energy prices remain at current levels.
At minimum, the U.S. faces a period of economic and social adjustment -- corporate, public, personal -- as it copes with the brave new world of $4 gasoline ... and that's if gasoline remains in the $4 per gallon range. A variety of scenarios could quickly send gasoline over $5 per gallon and higher in 2009.
The price of crude moved to a record above $112 overnight. It seems that speculation, a weak dollar, and concern about demand just keep pushing oil higher.
Now, oil is part of a "good news/bad news" play. Evidence is coming out of Russia that oil production there has peaked. According to the FT, "Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels." By many measures, Russia is the world's second largest oil producer.
That bad news may be offset by a huge oil discovery off the coast of Brazil. The country's state-owned oil company, Petróleo Brasileiro, said it had made a huge discovery off-shore. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency, Haroldo Lima, said the strike could be one of the world's biggest oil discoveries in decades, containing as much as 33 billion barrels in oil equivalent."
The question now is whether one huge deposit can offset a decline in Russia and a fall-off in oil from other large producers like Mexico. For now, the answer is "no." That's because the Brazil discovery is in deep water. It could take several years to get it completely online. The decline in production in other countries is happening now.
The Brazil discovery brings hope, but no relief, at least no for now.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
About a year ago, I had a chance to hear a presentation by Laurence Fink, who is the CEO of BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), which is a mega money manager. Simply put, he was a bit concerned about the markets. With the huge amounts of leverage, he thought that investors weren't getting enough premium for the potential risk.
Yes, it was a good call. And the upshot is that BlackRock has been a stellar performer.
Well, now Fink is more sanguine. In fact, in this week's Barron's [a paid publication], there is an interview with him.
What's his take? First of all, he think investors should dip into equities, such as the big caps that benefit from global growth. Some of his choices include: General Electric (NYSE: GE), Monsanto (NYSE: MON), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) and Boeing (NYSE: BA).
He also likes high-grade mortgage debt. Basically, the spreads are attractive (and seem to account for the risk levels).
Finally, Fink is bullish on overseas markets, especially commodity-based counties like Brazil.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend for support. But every once in while an exception is made for a non-conforming but innovative and promising company, and along these lines Gafisa S.A. looks attractive.
Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA) constructs residential buildings in middle/upper income areas in 35 markets in Brazil. Analysts like Gafisa's huge inventory of land, construction in progress, and finished units, all of which will serve to increase earnings, moving forward.
Further, outstanding mortgage loans in Brazil are only 2% of GDP. That means there's room for the nation's mortgage-based home buyer segment to expand. Meanwhile, lower interest rates in Brazil are providing a tailwind for the nascent, local mortgage market. The First Call F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for GFA are $1.38/$4.18. (Note: Only 1 estimate each year.)
Among the many investment pontificators you will find in the media, I pride myself on laying everything out on the table, good calls, bad calls and even my unfortunate periodic stupidity. All of my 2008 picks are down to a varying degree, making me look none too smart in the opening weeks of the year.
Among the stocks I like, Anglo Amercican PLC (NASDAQ: AAUK) has gone down from the $30 level where I recommended it to around $25 a share today. Its 52-week low is $23.38, and its high was $38.75. It pays a dividend currently yielding about 2%.
There has been a push to get big in copper, and all of the news out of South America supports this theme. Meanwhile MarketWatch reported China now world's largest gold producer; foreign miners at door. China is now producing more gold than South Africa, which has been the top producer since 1905.
Readers of this space know that the investment thesis offered here favors large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And along this line, Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paolo, or SABESP, is worth an evaluation.
SABESP (NYSE: SBS) is Brazil's largest water company, serving 22.7 million people. SBS provides water via about 6.6 million connections. The company also offers sewage services through about 4.8 million connections and more than 400 treatment plants. The state of Brazil owns a 50.3% stake in SBS.
Analysts really like SBS's leadership position in Sao Paulo water services, and customer growth prospects: the company aims to increase its customer base by 2 million during 2007-2010. Further, Brazil's solid economic growth provides an added macroeconomic tailwind. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SBS are $4.76/$4.96.
As concerns over America's economy began to spread in 2007, many investors decided to look overseas for protection. In order to hedge themselves against a possible economic slowdown in the U.S., traders poured money into emerging markets such as India and China, but some are starting to question just how safe these markets will be this year.
Last year, when it looked like the U.S. economy was going to get hit with a weak dollar and nasty housing market, it made sense to look to different markets for protection, but now some are fearing that the problems that are plaguing America will reach a point where they will pull down foreign economies also.
What we have seen in 2008 is a pretty substantial downtrend in some of last year's favorite safe havens. Markets such as Korea, Thailand, Turkey and Brazil have all been hit in the first half of January and are down over 8 percent.
Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy source. And among oil/natural gas companies, Petroleo Brasileiro is worth a review.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) (NYSE: PBR) is Brazil's largest industrial operation, with oil/gas production, refining and purchasing businesses, and oil/gas transport services.
Analysts like PBR's proven reserves of 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 12,900 wells, 16 refineries, 31,000 kilometers of pipeline, and 5,870 gasoline stations.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) is everywhere on the food chain according to the AOL Money & Finance profile. This includes being the leading global soybean processor, a leading South American fertilizer maker and the world's largest oilseed producer. The stock has hardly taken a breath in its ascent over the last five years. On December 28, 2007, BG closed at $119.03 per share.
Soy is used in so many products as an alternate ingredient and/or vegan-friendly product, with new ones being created every day. This fact alone might make Bunge a growth story, even if world demand for food was not increasing at such a rapid pace.
Over the last year, Bunge leaped 70%; in the last five years, BG has gained 433%. Normally this is not a place I would be looking for a cheap buy. However, its P/E ratio is only 19, which, given its growth chart, it still seems cheap. When we consider its P/S of 0.33 which is cheap, and a small dividend yield of 0.58%, it does seem like a value, that is if demand continues to rise.
I believe it will continue to rise since the rapidly growing global economy is raising the standard of living dramatically for hundreds of millions of "newly minted capitalists" in China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe, Brazil and elsewhere. Improved of at least changing diets are 'feeding demand,' and people are also eating much more.
Like never before, the rapidly growing global economy is raising the standard of living dramatically for hundreds of millions of "newly minted capitalists" in China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe, Brazil and elsewhere. They are buying bikes and cars, cell phones and flat-screen televisions, the latest fashions and the latest music. They are also changing their diets and eating much more.
No longer satisfied with your standard fare of starchy rice, potatoes and beans, they have increased their consumption of fish, poultry, beef, and a wider variety of fruits and vegetables, and even alcoholic beverages. Of course they continue to adopt the dubious growth of western fast food restaurants too.
In my pursuit of 2008 value stocks that offer growth opportunities and safety too, I looked for companies that would benefit from these trends. As consumption increases in some of these expanding economies, the following companies have greatly benefited, and they seem postured to continue their growth in the coming years.