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Time provides the advantage of not only additional events, but also the ability to the compare these events to conditions and issues in previous eras -- an argument against 'instant-analysis' and a major reason my Ph.D. advisor said, "Don't study any public official's decisions until he or she has been dead for 20 years."

Hence, time is naturally providing more evidence and perspective on the recently-ended period of global economic growth, and increasingly the evidence is showing that it was a global economy of unsustainable imbalances -- balances that policy makers mistakenly ignored.

2001-2007: a policy void

First and probably foremost there was the oil price imbalance. Whether they were driven up by speculators, by institutional investors seeking a return on equity, global energy demand, and/or by other factors, economists had warned for years that the U.S. and global economies could not continue to grow at adequate rates with oil above $80 per barrel. In fact, every previous oil shock in the modern era was followed by a recession in the United States. Still, little was done from a policy standpoint to stem oil's price rise.

Similarly, the U.S.'s then-increasing trade deficit, a good part of which had been fed by purchases of imported oil, and the notion that U.S. consumers could serve perpetually as the growth engine of the export-oriented developing world, was unsustainable, given stagnant U.S. incomes, and its nadir savings rate. Yet little was done to address this imbalance.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Pratik Sharma, principal at Atyant Capital Partners, who says the Indian stock market remains attractive.

Q. Pratik, the Indian stock market had incredible momentum, reaching 20,000+ at the beginning of this year, but has suffered substantially with the global economic crisis, and now is trading around the 10,000 mark. Where does it go from here?

A. Many sectors of the Indian market are currently being priced as if there is a systemic crisis in India. That is not the case at all. Indian banks are healthy, and domestic savings is north of 30+%, providing a stable and solid deposit base for banks.

Where the market goes from here is anyone's guess, but I'm seeing one of the best risk/reward scenarios I've ever seen. This is not across the board, but in select areas that are not included in the main indices.

I like those companies that serve a domestic market where the supply/demand dynamic is [favorable]. In this environment, taking a top-down sector approach may not be as good as taking a company-specific approach. Companies that have zero debt, solid balance sheets, and have lots of free cash flow are appealing. History has shown that [companies that] come out of periods like this with assets unimpaired will do really well.

Q. What indicators would tell investors it is time to get back into the Indian markets?

Could the financial crisis result in the United States losing its status as the world's financial superpower?

Indeed it could, Germany's Finance Minister Peter Steinbrueck told MarketWatch.com.

"The United States will lose its status as the superpower of the global financial system, not abruptly, but it will erode," Steinbrueck said, MarketWatch.com reported. "The global financial system will become more multi-polar."

However, Steinbrueck clarified his statement in subsequent remarks to FT.com. "When we look back 10 years from now, we will see 2008 as a fundamental rupture. I am not saying the dollar will lose its reserve currency status, but it will become relative," Steinbrueck told FT.com. Further, Steinbrueck repeated Germany's refusal to allocate public funds to acquire distressed/bad assets, arguing that the crisis is mainly hitting the United States.

The U.S.: a decade of descent

Economist Richard Felson concurred with Steinbrueck's analysis for the most part, but added that the U.S.'s decline, more accurately described as "a descent," is not irreversible.

"Globalization has played a role, but much of the U.S.'s descent in the past decade stems for policy mistakes, basically policies that didn't and don't work. The nation cut taxes before it went to war, creating a large budget deficit. A lack of a forward-looking energy policy helped balloon the trade deficit. And inadequate investment in infrastructure, education, and basic research is depressing economic growth below what it should be," Felson said. "The latter resulted in far fewer jobs begin created in the decade than what's required, leading to all sorts of problems, including the housing sector's implosion. The result has been a weaker U.S. economy with more structural problems, and an inability to project economic power. Meanwhile, the economic power of China, Russia, India, and Brazil has increased. I don't think that's what policy makers intended at the start of the decade, but that's been the result."

Oil falls, yet the price of gasoline is hanging up there, in the stratosphere. What's going on here?

Well, as is often the case in the oil and gasoline markets, the reasons are many.

First, the price of oil is falling on concerns that both the global economy and the U.S, economy will slow to a crawl (if not worse) due to the current credit crisis, says economist David H. Wang.

Oil, which fell $3.96 to $91.76 per barrel Tuesday at midday, has declined more than 30% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July.

"The financial crisis suggests that emerging market oil demand growth will slow, and that's the primary reason you're seeing the price of oil decline," Wang said. "Strong demand for oil in China and India really boosted oil's price in the last three years. You lower that China-India demand and you have a different oil market."

Now, what about gasoline prices? Here, U.S. motorists will face a wide range of prices, depending on where they live in the U.S., economist Peter Dawson told BloggingStocks Tuesday.

"The biggest factor short-term for gasoline is Hurricane Ike, which shut down a fuel pipeline and refinery capacity in Texas," Dawson said. "This will reduce the supply of gasoline in the South, so price increases of 50 cents or more in the Southwest and Southeast will not be unusual."

The dollar registered another week of impressive gains against both the euro and the pound. So where is the dollar headed from here, looking forward, a quarter or two?

BloggingStocks asked economists David H. Wang and Richard Felson to outline the dollar bullish and bearish views, respectively. The dollar finished the week at $1.4217 versus the euro and at $1.7927 versus the British pound. The greenback has advanced about 11% and 10% versus the euro and pound, respectively, in the last quarter.

Economist Wang said he sees a continuation of the dollar's rally in Q3 and Q4. Wang argues the U.S./global economic slowdown and accompanying credit concerns "will create a period of retrenchment on the part of institutional investors, and even once high-flying commodities won't be spared." The benefactor? The U.S. dollar, in a flight to quality, flight to safety.

"The dollar will rise for reasons that have nothing to do with U.S economic growth and everything to do with a lack of venues to put that capital to work productively," Wang said. "The prevailing psychology in Q3 and Q4 will be capital preservation." Wang sees the dollar strengthening to $1.30 versus the euro and to $1.65 versus the British pound by early 2009.

Conversely, economist Felson sees an end to the dollar's rally. Felson argues that the global slowdown will continue in Q3 and Q4, reducing both international trade levels and commodities demand. The former will see investors pull money out of stocks, the latter out of commodities as asset plays, with the euro and British pound benefiting.

With car sales in the U.S. and Europe in a disastrous decline, the markets of Latin America, India, and China were going to keep American auto companies from falling apart altogether.

That dream appears to be reaching a period of wakefulness. And, the reality is not terribly pleasant. China reported a fall-off of vehicle sales of about 6% in July. India is joining the party. According to The Wall Street Journal, "India's vehicle sales last month fell 4.4% to 94,584 cars from 98,893 cars a year earlier."

While the news may make Washington more sympathetic and help the likes of Ford (NYSE: F) and GM (NYSE: GM) to get huge loan guarantees, the longer-term outlook for global vehicle sales may be much worse than Detroit can imagine.

The theory has been that penetration of cars and trucks among consumers in China and India is low. As the middle class grows, so will the demand for new vehicles.

But, what if the theory is flawed? Slowing economies in developing countries may push back the growth of the middle classes by several years. The new car buying class may not emerge. The people in China and India who can afford cars may already own them.

Detroit was hoping it had been saddled with all the bad news it could handle. Maybe not.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

What's a telling sign of slowing global growth? Continually decreasing oil demand forecasts.

The International Energy Agency again lowered its global oil demand forecasts for 2008 and 2009 as high prices and reduced U.S. consumption lowered overall demand for crude, the organization announced Wednesday. It lowered its 2008 forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 86.8 million barrels, and 2009 estimate by 140,000 barrels to 87.6 million barrels.

The IEA's announcement had little impact on oil prices early Wednesday as oil rose 60 cents to $104.43 per barrel. However, it should be noted that two bullish factors also affected prices Wednesday: an OPEC announcement of a commitment to existing production quotas with a pledge not to exceed them, as some cartel members have in the past; and Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, which threatened to damage oil rigs and infrastructure as it approaches the Texas-area coastline, according to weather.com.

Oil's price surge takes a toll

Oil has declined about 30% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July 12. Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Wednesday the dip in oil's price over the past two months is not nearly enough to blot-out the process-changing affect of oil's four-year price surge.

Wall Street, really a typical, small, village-like setting, save for the fact that about $8-12 trillion dollars in capital passes through its vortex daily, is a pulse-taking community. And for a dose of reality to counter-balance the sometimes too-rosy institutional research, the Street looks to the 'perpetual pessimist,' Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's (NYSE: MS) Asia Chairman.

Roach's take on economic state-of-things as the United States gets back to work this fall? Don't play "Happy Days Are Here Again" just yet. Roach said the global economic slowdown has only just begun, with the United States heading into a recession and the impact of the credit crunch still roiling through financial institutions around the world, Bloomberg News reported.

"There's more to this macro event than just the credit-market contagion itself," Roach told Bloomberg News. "Maybe two-thirds of that is behind us, but the impacts on the real side of the U.S. economy and the global economy are at an early stage.''

U.S., global economies slow together

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Wednesday Roach's analysis and comments should not be ignored by executives, small business owners, or typical citizens as they set their budgets and financial plans for the year ahead.

Two organizations, one projection: a forecast of 86.9 million barrels of oil per day consumed in 2009.

The International Energy Agency and OPEC arrived at the same projection, suggesting that, in economist Peter Dawson's interpretation that "2009 is going to be a year of a slowdown in oil consumption growth, which is significant."

Moreover, Dawson is quick to highlight what's important in the above: slowing oil consumption growth in emerging markets. Oil consumption in the United States has been falling for more than two years -- it's projected to drop 3.1% in 2008 and another 2.3% in 2009. It's oil consumption in the developing world, primarily China and India, that really moves prices, Dawson said. Oil Monday closed up 52 cents to $115.11 per barrel.

'A small victory, that we'll take'

Right now it appears, for the first time in more than five years, consumption growth (not to be confused with a consumption decline) will slow, he said.

"It's a small victory, that we'll take, regarding the oil markets," Dawson said. "For the first time in a while we'll see some demand relief internationally, and that has to help lower oil prices."

The Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone is supposed to be the hottest handset on the planet, but in some parts of the world it has very little appeal at all.

The market in India is teaching Apple a lesson or two. The first is that price is an issue. No matter how much people love the product, there is a point at which the cost is simply too high.

According to MarketWatch reports from India, "The princely sum of 31,000 rupees ($720) for the 8-gigabyte iPhone and 36,100 rupees ($840) for the 16 GB version was too high for even such a cool gizmo." If Apple is going to make any progress in one of the world's largest markets, it is going to have to solve that problem. Otherwise, more reasonably priced products from other phone makers such as market leader Nokia (NYSE: NOK) are going to continue to rule the roost.

The other issue in India is that it has very little 3G infrastructure. That makes the new version of the iPhone less appealing. Apple can do very little to solve this problem, but it does say that there are some limits that even the most popular product can't overcome.

Apple is about to launch the iPhone is Russia and sales are expected to be good there, but the company's goal of getting a quick start in every important market may be thwarted.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Airlines globally could lose $6.1 billion in 2008, on soaring oil prices and financial market dislocation, the head of the International Air Transport Association said, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday (subscription required).

Giovanni Bisignani, managing director of the IATA, which represents 230 airlines, called the sector "a fragile industry in a crisis" and that it's "bracing for more situations of airlines collapsing," due to high fuel prices and lower revenue, The Journal reported. Further, the air travel slowdown, once thought to be contained to developed nations, has spread to global air travel's plum: Asia, he added.

Airline slowdown could hurt Boeing, Airbus

Stock analyst and frequent flier C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Thursday if the Asian hemisphere is slowing, to go along with sluggish revenue statistics in Europe and the United States, the slowdown "would have wide implications, not just for airlines, but for airplane manufacturers Boeing and Airbus."

"Further consolidation globally, was a given, particularly in nations like India, which had too many airlines even before the global economy slowed, but the concern now is that national carriers will postpone or cancel plane orders," Bauer said. "From a U.S. perspective, that could mean bad news for Boeing. And what's bad news for Boeing is bad news for the U.S economy. Airplane sales have been one of the U.S. economy's few bright spots." [Bauer added that he does not own shares in or have a rating on any airline or airplane manufacturer. However, Bauer does have frequent flier miles/points in American Airlines (NYSE: AMR).]

It would appear to be axiomatic to say that there are few benefits from an oil price over $100 per barrel. Nevertheless, during oil's latest climb to the stratosphere, some have argued that a high oil price is 'net-positive for the global economy,' or 'a long-term good thing.'

Economist Glen Langan has a word for insta-analysis like the above. "Misguided," he calls them.

Not that Langan is an ardent advocate of oil use; hardly. Would that the developed and developing world could shift today to an alternate, renewable, and more environmentally-friendly energy form, he says. But the world can't, and as is some times the case in social science circles, "the normative influences the empirical," he says, and leads to curious conclusions like an 'oil shock being net-positive for the global economy.'

For the record: an oil shock is never net-positive for the global economy, Langan argues.

There are some benefits, to be sure, such as increased conservation, increased research on alternate/renewable energy forms, a transfer of some wealth to some developing nations and, of course, astounding increases in wealth in those connected to oil and oil services, but the overall effect is net-negative. Oil traded Thursday up $5.46 to $121.42 per barrel.

Last month I wrote about the Clown Prince of Nepotism Donald Trump Jr.'s grandiose announcement of plans to raise $1 billion to invest in India's booming real estate market.

Now BusinessWeek's HotProperty column is expressing some skepticism. After noting that Trump got the idea back in November after speaking at a real estate conference in Mumbai, Prashant Gopal notes that "The market has changed quite a bit since then. Inflation and interest rates are climbing and shares of Indian builders, home price appreciation, and demand for land are slowing. [...] Of course, this might be a good time to jump in and pick up land at distressed-sale prices. But he will be competing against established players."

Still: the fact that Trump Jr. appears to have struck upon this idea at the height of the market is indicative of something.

But I wouldn't worry too much: the "announcement" of a $1 billion fund struck me as a more of grandiose publicity ploy/plea for credibility from a reality TV bit-player than a ground floor opportunity to get in with real estate development's next big star. I'll believe otherwise when Trump announces he's raised the money, and I won't be holding my breath.

One way investors/readers could characterize the current environment is as a world filled with concerns.

Concern about the U.S. housing sector. Concern about declining U.S. disposable income. Concerning about slowing GDP growth in Europe and Asia. Concern about the Yankees not winning the American League pennant.

O.K., that last item was a purely subjective, parochial one, but you get the point: there's concern that global economic conditions are worsening, not improving.

Europe's GDP is latest focal point

Further, while emerging markets in Asia, led by China and India, have been the growth story of the decade, the region really sending a chill up economists' -- business executives' -- spines is Europe, so says economist Glen Langan.

"Up through July we had seen weakness in Italy, Greece, Spain, and Portugal, and the investment community's response was one of 'no big deal, they are not the major growth regions, anyway,'" Langan said. "But now there's signs of slowing in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, and nearly every demand-side indicator is in retreat. It's a pronounced psychological shift, no question."

Just call it 'two steps forward, one step back' for the global trade talks.

The collapse of the World Trade Organization's trade talks this week without an agreement is a setback, economists contacted by BloggingStocks agreed, but it is not likely likely to prevent international trade from growing in 2009.

The nine-day talks in Geneva -- aimed at completing the Doha Round -- collapsed Tuesday after the United States and the European Union could not reach an agreement with China and India on what constituted acceptable tariffs for food imports, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The U.S. and E.U. say China and India wanted to impose prohibitively high tariffs. China and India counter that they were insisting on safeguard rules to protect their food supplies.

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks the elimination of food import tariffs would have resulted in more-efficient deployment of resources, and, ultimately, lower food prices for consumer around the world, along with increased the increased commerce that trade brings. "The failure of the talks is a real loss for consumers in China, India and in the U.S. and Europe," Langan said. "It will also really hurt low cost food producers in Brazil, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Ultimately, China and India will have to relent, or the west may begin to complain about free trade conditions for manufacturing and services. That manufacturing free trade policy has been the source of a considerable amount of China's and India's economic growth."