Since early May, the share price of Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) has plunged, going from $52 to $31.12. Basically, various Wall Street analysts have turned negative on the company as there may be a need to seek more capital to deal with write-downs.
Of course, a strategy to deal with this is to unload some key assets. In fact, according to a piece in the New York Times, it looks like Merrill is trying to sell off its 20% stake in Bloomberg LP.
It was in the early 1980s that Merrill Lynch invested $30 million in Bloomberg. And since then, Bloomberg has become a global powerhouse in financial analytics. Currently, its community comprises about 250,000 subscribers.
As for Merrill Lynch, it looks like its negotiations are in the first stages -- such as with putting out feelers and sending out pitch books.
Yet, it's never easy to sell a minority position. After all, such a stake provides little control. Moreover, it's tough to resell the position. Keep in mind that Michael Bloomberg still owns 72% of the firm.
Plus, he has a right of first refusal on any purchase. This is a powerful tool and is likely to diminish the ultimate valuation of a possible deal. In other words, the logical buyer for the 20% stake is likely to be Michael Bloomberg himself.
One of the most controversial proposals for dropping the price of oil is to allow drilling in protected parklands and in restricted off-shore areas. Since there are deposits of crude and gas in these areas, it is also one of the more sure-fire ways of adding to production.
It now appears that the waters off Florida are among the most promising. According to the AP, "The early activity here stems from a 2006 Congressional compromise that allows drilling on 8.3 million acres more than 125 miles off the Panhandle."
The promise of the Florida coast is both good news and bad, depending which side of the debate one is on. A find of any real significance is likely to be proof of the fact that opening protected lands will yield results.
For the "green" crown, it could mean the the government will be encouraged to drill of near protected beaches. There may even be wells in Yellowstone.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
There is something rotten in Denmark, to quote from Hamlet, Act I, as well as in Las Vegas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Colorado, Iowa, and Florida. Gambling havens, once thought recession proof, are in trouble. Customer numbers are down, as are gambling, gift shop, hotel, and restaurant revenues. Casinos in Las Vegas have been hard hit, according to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, because of billions of dollars of debt to finance overambitious expansion plans. Tropicana Entertainment filed for Chapter 11 in May, defaulting on $2.67 billion in bank and bond debt. But smaller casinos are also feeling the pain.
Isle of Capri Casinos Inc. (NASDAQ: ISLE) recently reported 4Q and FY2008 results. Snake eyes. Investors know they are not in for good news when the CEO spends the first few paragraphs of an earnings release discussing what a "transformational period" the last year has been. That's corporate-speak for "money losing," beginning with a $78.7 million write down in the value of some of the company's international assets and ending with a $51.3 million loss from continuing operations in 4Q 2008. All told, Isle of Capri Casinos lost $96.9 million from continuing operations in FY2008.The company cited increased competition in riverboat gambling in Biloxi, a smoking ban in casinos in Colorado, and a flood in Natchez as reasons for the lackluster performance. The company admits it needs to renovate 1,200 of its hotel rooms in order to attract customers back to the slots and tables.
The stock is currently trading at $4.23, near its 52-week low of $3.97.
Despite all this, some deals are getting done. Perhaps the most notable is the BCE (NYSE: BCE) LBO. BCE has reached an agreement with its private equity sponsors and banks to close its $51 billion LBO. This will represent the biggest buyout in history.
Now, there are some wrinkles. The closing date will be extended to December and there will not be any dividend payments for the rest of the year. The break-up fee was also upped from $1 billion to $1.2 billion.
Yet, the fact is that the price tag will remain unchanged (at $42 per share). No doubt, this is a big feat, especially in light of the credit crunch.
Apparently, there was much discussion about renegotiating the price. Then again, the prospects of massive litigation were daunting, as we have seen in a variety of other deals such as with Clear Channel, SLM (NYSE: SLM) and Huntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN).
While there were challenges, it looked like Texas Pacific Group would snag a 23% equity stake in Bradford & Bingley PLC, a UK mortgage company. True, the deal was highly dilutive, but at the same time, B&B has been suffering from the credit crunch.
Now, TPG has walked away and instead, a syndicate of investors has rounded up $793 million to bolster B&B. Apparently, the company will need to raise even more capital.
Why? Basically, Moody's Investors Service downgraded the debt of B&B because of rising mortgage delinquencies and continued balance sheet problems. As a result, the economics of the deal changed significantly. In fact, TPG had negotiated an "out" clause for such a scenario.
Actually, the deal implosion points to the fact that the credit crunch is global. It even appears that things may be getting worse, especially in Europe, where there may be a need for many more capital infusions for the financial services sector.
A lot of investors think that oil prices will determine what happens to the stock market over the next quarter, and for the most part, that is right.
The world's largest conglomerate will report earnings next week. It has operations in almost every country in the world. It has divisions in entertainment, infrastructure, medical devices, jet engines, plastics and financial services. And that is just a partial list.
If General Electric (NYSE:GE) posts poor numbers it will be hard for the market as a whole to believe that the economy is going anywhere but down. According to Reuters, "Aside from second-quarter results, investors are anxious to see the companies' forecasts for world economic growth and their own corporate sales prospects."
It is hard to imagine that one company could set the tone that would influence how stocks may trade for several weeks, but GE does a great deal of business in Asia. Growth in that region is viewed as a salvation for large American companies.
GE also has a huge financial services arm. If it takes large write-downs, it may well be a sign that the credit crisis is growing.
GE. GE. GE.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) wants to expand the reach of its vital Office suite of products. The software giant wants to utilize a subscription model for the collection of programs. The initiative will commence later this month at Circuit City (NYSE: CC) and it will eventually reach other retail stores. People will also eventually have the option of accessing the subscription product via computers such as ones made by Dell (NASDAQ: DELL). The cost is reported to be $70 for twelve months of Office access.
This is an interesting scheme. As the article points out, businesses might not bat an eye at subscribing to software applications, but for consumers, this is a different ballgame. Many of us, myself included, are so used to going down to a Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) to purchase a software package for a flat fee that paying yearly dues just seems like an alien concept. And I'd say this goes double for something as large and complex as the Office program. Microsoft believes that $70 on an annual basis will be perceived as cheap and will expose consumers who might normally either seek upgrades on a pirated basis or who would simply continue using older versions to regular approved updates. It is a large investment, after all, to upgrade to a new iteration of Office.
Microsoft would be wise to market the heck out of the subscription model for Office, taking full advantage of the inflationary environment we are currently in. If potential users can be convinced of the value proposition, then they could eventually become hooked on the promise of upgrades over time for the relatively economical price indicated. Checking around on the net, I notice that a lot of the negative comments about this idea center on the fact that there are already free alternatives out there to Office, such as applications offered by Google (NASDAQ: GOOG).
Back in late March, Corel Corporation (NASDAQ: CREL), a provider of productivity software, received a buyout offer from its largest investor, Vector Capital, which owns 69%.
What has happened since then? Well, on Corel's Q2 conference call, the company talked about the outstanding offer. The board has formed a special committee and is evaluating matters. Unfortunately, there was no more information on the matter (and no indication when there might be some more details).
Yet, in the meantime, Corel continues to focus on the business. Revenues in the quarter increased from $65 million to $67 million. Net income was $930,000, or $0.04 per share. What's more, adjusted EBITDA was $14.9 million.
Corel has been successful with a variety of drivers. For example, the company has been savvy with its M&A, such as with its deals for JASC, WinZip and InterVideo. What's more, Corel is getting lots of traction in emerging markets. There is also growth in the company's new Blu-Ray graphics offerings.
As for fiscal 2008, Corel expects revenues of $263-$275 million, with net income of $8.5-$13.5 million.
On news of the quarterly results, there was a nice rally in the stock as it spiked 15% to $10.75.
In a brilliant article in The New York Times, the paper points out that of all the mistakes that Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) made in its expansion, picking real estate locations may have been the worst. Much of the analysis for the piece came from talking to real estate brokers. The paper writes, "In some cases, brokers say, Starbucks misjudged the risks of putting stores close to each other, leading to the decline in same-store sales."
It is astonishing that Starbucks would make such basic errors and speaks to what happened to management during the period when founder Howard Schultz was absent from the CEO job. The team that replaced him said it believed the company would eventually have 40,000 store worldwide. It clearly cut corners in terms of planning to get there.
The real trouble with the real estate location decisions is that it may take a very long time to fix. Closing stores may be easy, but finding better spots, negotiated for the space, and building out new stores will be time consuming and, perhaps, expensive.
Schultz and his minions are paying for rampant growth, and the poor souls who worked for him are paying more. Almost 12,000 will lose their jobs.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
According to a Billboard article published Wednesday, Neilsen Soundscan has reported an 11% decline in album sales during the first half of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. Consumers purchased 204.6 million albums between January and June, over 25 million less than a year ago, but luckily not as sharp a decline as the 15.1% that occurred in the first half of 2007 as compared to 2006. Nielsen Soundscan told Billboard that the "drop is fueled largely by the 16.3% decrease in CD sales" despite digital album sales rising 34.4& to account for 15.4% of sales (31.6 million units).
Digital growth is still a productive and lucrative spot for the music industry, with single track downloads growing 30% to 532.7 million units in the first half of the year over first half sales in 2007 of 417.3 million units. Universal Music Group is still the most dominating music company, despite dropping .3% to 31.2% in sales. Sony BMG Music Entertainment and EMI Group also fell, with Sony BMG dropping .5% to 24.8% and EMI dropping 1% to 9.4%. The only major music company to gain any ground was Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG), rising .8% to 20.8%. Independent music companies also rose in the first six months of 2008, capturing 13.9% of the market -- up 1%.
Declines in album sales are a constant trend in the music industry, so an 11% drop is no real surprise but the lowered decline over one year ago should cause some relaxation. The only problem with the drop in decline is that album sales are still falling off. Even though Nielsen Soundscan and Billboard both commented on the hope provided by single track downloads, the industry still looks to album sales to justify the recording and marketing of music. If that trend would change, single track downloads would make an obvious market to rely on. Instead, reports about declining album sales will still continue while single track downloads continue to grow.
No you can't. Circuit City doesn't have any sort of game plan at the moment, and it's sinking fast. The company's stock is priced at $2.31 as I write this. The goofy Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) transaction is gone (for now, at least...there are reports saying that it could be resurrected at a later date, although I don't buy that it will happen at all). It isn't competing effectively against Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT). In short, Circuit City is a Titanic-like electronics retailer that doesn't know how to keep its ship from hitting icebergs.
So this resignation isn't surprising. Of course, is there any way to make money off the stock? I do believe there is downside to come on the share price, which would therefore imply that shorting it could work out. Alas, I wouldn't recommend it. You just know that some company and/or financial entity out there might come in at any point and make a bid, and the shares could skyrocket. Although the Blockbuster deal didn't make sense, it doesn't mean that there isn't some transaction scheme out there that would be logical. Circuit City is a stock merely to watch out of curiosity, it's not one to do anything about.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
As if pouring salt on a wound, Moody's came out today and cut the rating of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to junk status. Their rating was cut to Ba1 from Baa3.
As reported in a Bloomberg report, Moody's said: " While the company is one of the only remaining home builders that is currently generating earnings before impairment charges, Moody's does not expect this to continue, as falling prices and lower absorption rates continue to impact margins."
Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll has recently told the market that he thinks that real estate is still in a downward spiral. It seems that Moody's agrees. While this all maybe true, for long term investors, shares in Toll Brothers are certainly intriguing under $19. Long term, contrarian inclined investors may want to do a bit of research as the shares maybe approaching levels that are hard to refuse.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.
I was actually in Detroit on Monday. I'm not going to write about the urban decay and the deterioration of the city. Many have researched and documented this far better than I ever could. But even in my short three-hour visit, the evidence was all too clear. Personally, I think Detroit has more character than many other richer and far more maintained and manicured cities. Even abandoned and in shambles, many of the buildings are architectural gems. Perhaps because one can still see the glorious past through the ruins, that it is so affecting. Or, as the website names them, they are The Fabulous Ruins of Detroit.
This week has been very busy for automakers, starting with June car and truck sales reported on Tuesday. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) reported an 18.2% drop in sales, which was actually better than expected, and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) a drop of 27.9%. Meanwhile, Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) posted a 21.4% sales decline. GM shares actually got a boost from the sales figures, but that didn't last long.
Oil easily pushed past $145 Thursday morning after traders calculated that the already weak dollar has further to fall after the European Central Bank increased a key interest rate by a quarter point to 4.25%.
Oil rose as much as $2.28 to $145.85 per barrel -- an all-time high -- before easing back slightly to trade at $144.40 at mid-day.
Oil tends to rise when the dollar falls as investors/traders seek to preserve purchasing power of the decreased value of dollar-denominated commodities by bidding their price up. However, it's important to note that the dollar/oil correlation is not perfect: there have been instances in which the dollar fell and oil fell.
Despite a 66% drop from first week sales of 721,000 copies, Coldplay's fourth album Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends retains the top spot on the Billboard 200, selling 249,000 copies in the album's second week of release. Billboardreported the chart placement Wednesday and noted album sales are down 7.66% in the last week while dropping 13.2% behind the same week totals from one year ago.
The album was released in the United Kingdom three weeks ago tomorrow, while it has only been out in the United States for two weeks. It debuted big in the UK, selling 302,000 copies in the first three days it was out and selling 500,000 copies after ten days. Sales in the U.S. over seven days are obviously larger than the UK figures, pointing to rumored hopes from the band's music label EMI that the album would provide a significant boost for the company during the summer and possibly the year.
I've had the album since it was released, reporting that very day about the packaging of a vinyl and CD copy together that seemed to hint EMI was aware that consumers listen to music more frequently on MP3 players even if they prefer vinyl copies for nostalgia or the entire experience. Two weeks at number is impressive in today's market and even though sales dropped 66%, 249,000 copies is a nice figure for one week. If continued rumors are true that the band will release another album within a year and a half, the future of EMI may be more and more based on the success of one band.
Since early May, the share price of Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) has plunged, going from $52 to $31.12. Basically, various Wall Street analysts have turned negative on the company as there may be a need to seek more capital to deal with write-downs.
One of the most controversial proposals for dropping the price of oil is to allow drilling in protected parklands and in restricted off-shore areas. Since there are deposits of crude and gas in these areas, it is also one of the more sure-fire ways of adding to production.
This week, we've seen two major buyout deals come undone: the 
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I was actually in Detroit on Monday. I'm not going to write about the urban decay and the deterioration of the city. Many have researched and documented this far better than I ever could. But even in my short three-hour visit, the evidence was all too clear. Personally, I think Detroit has more character than many other richer and far more maintained and manicured cities. Even abandoned and in shambles, many of the buildings are architectural gems. Perhaps because one can still see the glorious past through the ruins, that it is so affecting. Or, as the website names them, they are 
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